About 60% of the adult human population is going through an election this year. I’ll focus on the US election in November (though much of what I’ll say here applies broadly). Elections amplify our fears and hopes despite abundant evidence that political “solutions” are limited. An election is a marker on a river of events, the sweep of history. We’re currently living the story we will one day tell.
What can we say about events 6 months after the US election? Let’s begin with what won’t change, no matter who is elected.
Prices will remain about where they are for some time. Inflation will not disappear. The US will not be suddenly less indebted. People will remain deeply divided over the same issues that divide us today. Significant state by state variation of some laws, taxes, and regulations will continue. Existing laws will remain on the books. Existing wars will not cease immediately. Climate shifts happen slowly, over decades and centuries. Enemies of the West will remain enemies. You’ll get the same quality of education at existing institutions. People will struggle to change their preferred narratives and ways of explaining events. People will still be deeply flawed, unable to save themselves or create a utopia via laws and regulations. Artificial intelligence is exciting and promising but will have no independent agency. The global demographic decline will continue.
What could change in that period?
Policies which affect energy, prices, regulatory constraints. Enforcement of existing laws. Executive orders and new proposed laws. Different leaders of institutions and government offices, with different priorities and viewpoints. Amplification/suppression of certain voices. The pace of some changes (e.g., alternative education solutions, state legislation reacting to voter pressures). Perceptions of economic factors. Perceptions of country strength and resolve. Strategic decisions on industries which get more government support, and level of protection of US companies against global competition. Even more things can change over years.
There are plenty of wildcards. How long is the honeymoon period for new leaders? Will election procedures be viewed as fair? Will social unrest spill into violence? What’s the mix of personal responsibility and ‘victimhood’? Who will be willing to do the hard work of building and rebuilding institutions? What will gatekeepers and people in power structures do to retain their status? What happens and how quickly with geopolitical tensions – especially China, Russia, and Iran, but also Poland, Hungary, Turkey, and France? Will there be large-scale natural events (pandemics, massive earthquakes, coronal ejections) which affect millions of people? How many people will accept the truth, even when it hurts? We’re in a silent recession now; businesses getting squeezed by inflation, rising wages, a declining pool of skilled workers, and softening demand for their services. Will concerns coalesce into a general recession?
