Change drivers fall into two rough categories:
Impersonal wave movements. Most people can sense them and a few clearly see them coming, but they defy efforts to control or shape them. These include demographic changes in population, the broad swath of technological advances, changing tastes and sensibilities of large people groups, ecological shifts, and the transition between older and new business models. These waves have massive energy but only become a big topic of conversation when they “suddenly” are seen as a threat to a favored status quo.
Choices by tiny proportion of individuals. These come from country leaders, bureaucrats, organizational leaders, the people who control/influence media, the algorithm designers and gatekeepers, judges, potentially your neighbors, and even members of your own family. We hold leaders to high standards because a subset of their decisions have disproportionately large and long consequences for many others. History is replete with events unleashed by the act of one individual – WW1 was triggered by a single assassin, tech-shaping businesses began as dreams of one person, and kings decided when to go to war. I write “tiny proportion of individuals” because in the real story it is never just one person acting alone; others help or choose not to hinder. As Andy Andrews has pointed out, there are about 1000 elected leaders in the US whose decisions influence the lives of 315 million people. Less than 300 Chinese leaders systematically control a 1.3 billion person juggernaut. There are millions of cooperative people aligned (some unconsciously) with those 1300 leaders.
Note that the impersonal wave movements can be exploited by savvy individuals, and often set up unstable conditions where a normally insignificant decision or event triggers a cataclysm of changes.
You need discernment about wave movements, and being alert for consequential choices of the few. Develop discernment by studying history, and especially history through biographies. Seek out conversations with people with discernment — there are relatively few, so be selective. As I learned in the Boy Scouts, “Be Prepared.”
