How many times in history have we seen examples where crisis situations evolved rapidly and leaders were stuck without good options?  Everything escalates rapidly.  They recognized problems too late.  There is no one available who can step in to fix things.

How many times has that happened to you? 

Perhaps the best people and project managers, and the best political, military, and organizational leaders are largely unknown.  They planned well and systematically generated options so that major crises didn’t happen. 

Reviewing crisis events pushes us to ask and answer this question: “What could have been done differently to prevent this from happening?”  There are sometimes mechanical and process factors.  There are almost always missed opportunities to have built relationships.  Weak relationships will lose to stronger relationships when the crisis comes. 

The optionality that leaders need often comes down to “Who can help here?”  Pre-existing relationships have platinum value.  Your web of relationships represents options you have to prevent bad outcomes, or begin to address them quickly before they become a crisis. 

Create time every month to diversify and deepen your personal network.  

Three instances where you need to be ESPECIALLY mindful of the “unseen part of the iceberg below the waterline”:

• When you’ve been “added into” an existing group of people who have plenty of prior experience with one another, but not you
• When you’re trying to persuade very senior leaders in an organization
• When you’re promoting a minority viewpoint or unconventional idea

Your best efforts can easily be derailed or nullified by the unknown history of relationships and events, the unknown aspects of organizational pressures or external factors, and the compelling power of status quo.

Do you research.  Test your assumptions.  Be prepared.

Study these complex historical events to find patterns:

The French Revolution (1789)
The Bolshevik Revolution (1917)
The Rise of the Third Reich (1943-45)
Mao’s Communist Revolution (1949)
The Cultural Revolution (1966-1976)
The Iranian Revolution (1979)

Common patterns:
None of the initial and noble aims for justice were achieved
The energy of the crowds was co-opted by individuals desiring power
Intentional and systematic lies became foundational structures
The meaning of words were radically changed and old standards cast aside
Individualism was suppressed in favor of collectivism
Race and class were emphasized above earned merit
An escalating series of loyalty oaths were instituted
All forms of media were taken over by the state
All religious ideas and practices not sanctioned by the state were persecuted to extinction
The state powers were deeply suspicious of parents and families educating children
Acceptable speech and action were compelled by force
The state encouraged citizens to turn in those who were non-compliant
Many of the early leaders were subsequently eliminated
Economies largely faltered and failed (the exception being Nazi Germany/Austria)
Humorless

Many business problems have been solved. They may not have been solved by you, but the primary problems of manufacturing, inventory management, accounting, marketing, and project management have known solutions. I do not diminish the importance or hard work associated with execution!

There are challenges which can be met from first principles, but do not have recipes:

Innovation
Organizational culture
Developing people
Business model transformation

These require a combination of cross-functional disciplines, paying attention to the Muse for inspiration, and plain hard work. There are examples (not recipes) to study. Generally people who read about successful changes in one organization can’t precisely replicate that same change in their organization.

Lean into hard problems. There’s joy and satisfaction in the journey through them.

When you’re younger you should read and listen widely. Get exposed to many speakers, writers, people of different ages and interests in your life. This is about breadth of ideas and experiences.

As you get into your 30’s you should intentionally become more discerning about your mentors. Aim to go deeper. Find those relatively few which consistently inspire and challenge you. Which people (living, or dead) give you information, ideas, and frameworks which are helpful?

Your mentors should meet two criteria:
1) Both the content and the style resonate with you. It’s easy to pay attention to learn and go deep. You don’t have to agree 100% with everything, but 8 times out of 10 you should experience an Aha.
2) You see results in others when you share what you’re learning from your mentor.

There’s a pattern to observe with the great leaders and teachers in history: they had a close inner circle, and an expanding radius of others they taught and trusted. You can see this pattern in every great political leader in history. You can see this in everyone who led a movement. Jesus had 70 close followers, 12 chosen disciples, and then 3 of these were in his inner circle.

Settling on your best mentors is the inverse — there might be 70 who have influenced you somewhat, a dozen that are more significant, and three who most deeply influence you. Narrow in on your key few.

(Excerpted from my book Bold and Gentle: Thriving Wisely in an Age of Exponential Change)

I’ve been privileged to spend time around senior business leaders and some government officials. I pay attention to what they’re reading. You’ll see leading newspapers like WSJ and NYTimes. You’ll see a few of the recent “trendy” books that have especially good recommendations. I’ve often seen religious books — the Bible, Talmud, Buddhist, and Hindu Vedic texts most commonly. What intrigues me are the frequent instances of leaders reading biographies.

I suspect these leaders are operating in a world of problems which don’t have easy solutions. Yet we instinctly understand there are both spiritual dimensions to our challenges and we could learn by observing how other leaders handled the challenges in their time (whether well or not). When we realize that we’re beyond formulas and recipes, we turn to spiritual works and biographies.

Read biographies of people you admire, and a few you do not. This is not an exhaustive list of biographies I’ve enjoyed and benefitted by reading. I’m sharing in hopes you find something that piques your interest:

Titan (biography of John D. Rockefeller) — Ron Chernow
Benjamin Franklin – Walter Isaacson
Leonardo da Vinci – Walter Isaacson
The Last Lion (biography of Winston Churchill in 3 volumes) – William Manchester
Eisenhower in War and Peace – Jean Edward Smith
The Rise of Theodore Roosevelt – Edmund Morris
Theodore Rex — Edmund Morris
Team of Rivals – Doris Kearns Goodwin
Truman – David McCullough
John Adams – David McCullough
Alexander Hamilton – Ron Chernow
Robert E. Lee – Emory Thomas
Lew Kwan Yew: The Man and His Ideas – Kwang and Fernandez
Washington: A Life – Ron Chernow
Einstein: His Life and Universe – Walter Isaacson
The House of Morgan – Ron Chernow
Margaret Thatcher (authorized biography) – Charles Moore
Indira Ghandi – Inder Malhotra
Victoria: The Queen – Julia Baird
A Chance to Die: The Life and Legacy of Amy Carmichael – Elisabeth Elliot

Organizational leaders set policies, intending to shape behavior.  Policies will not change external forces outside the organization.  People both crave and resent organizational policies. The response to policies is often unexpected (both positive and negative).  History is replete with examples of failed policies and surprised leaders. 

There is a lesson about setting policies in the novel Dune.  Duke Leto tells his son Paul, “Give as few orders as possible. Once you’ve given orders on a subject, you must always give orders on that subject.”  Bureaucrats and administrators – with sincere intentions – tend of proliferate policies. 

The common trap for policymakers is forgetting that the real world, with actual people in a constellation of societies, in real economies, is a complex adaptive system.  Policies which assume otherwise will shred and decay.  Leaders continuing to wishfully believe that flawed assumption build policies on top of policies in desperate attempts to “fix” situations.

Let’s remind ourselves about the properties of complex adaptive systems (CAS), and then consider how best to design policies.

CAS cannot be accurately described by linear models with constant assumptions.  They do not mechanistically trend to a desired equilibrium.  CAS have high non-linearity.  They always contain elements that drive instability.  A CAS can be resilient but is not inherently predictable.  CAS are like biological systems, not car engines – we don’t even understand all the parts or how they relate to one another. 

Seven suggestions for thinking wisely about policies in a CAS world:

1. Consider the tradeoff between efficiency on one dimension, and sustainable resilience overall. Decide which problems you prefer to have.
2. Buffers, margin, and modularity can increase resilience.
3. Guard against the worst downside case rather than maximize one upside dimension.
4. Expect the unexpected.  Anticipate people “working around” a policy.  Think about leading indicators which give you time and space to adjust to an unwanted system dynamic.
5. Think in terms of scenarios; there is no such thing as a single point probability forecast for a CAS. 
6. Change a policy rather than “stacking” an additional policy as a “solution.” 
7. Accept that no policy is “perfect” because a CAS demands you work in terms of tradeoffs. 

The man next to me at my airport gate was watching CNN. He turned to me and said, “There is a scary divide in our country. How can we ever be unified again with this kind of idiotic politics going on?”

He’s not alone in his thinking. I’ve heard other concerns recently about divisions:

“The wealth inequality will foment an uprising.”

“Racism is worsening instead of getting better.”

“We can’t keep blaming everything on immigrants.”

“There is no middle ground for conversation anymore, so it’s safer to say nothing.”

“Religious nuts are making things worse. Some are the most dangerous people on the planet.”

But not every person, like my fellow traveler, laments the cultural divide. There’s an undercurrent in society that actually savors the chaos, uncertainty, media noise, and fear-mongering.

How can we help people get to the far side of this fear-filled chasm?

The church—humbly, with all its faults—is the singular institution in human history to bridge these divisions.

Here are seven reasons why the church (both the church “gathered” on Sundays and “scattered” throughout the week) is best suited for this role:

1. The church is called to model forgiveness and reconciliation, reflecting how we ourselves have been forgiven and reconciled to God through Jesus Christ (1:21-22). We will not heal the divisions between individuals and groups unless we first have reconciliation with God. Far too many people know nothing of forgiveness and mercy, which comes from no other source but God.
2. The dignity of every individual, being made in the image of God (imago dei), shapes the church’s decisions about governing, economics, business models, and justice. This dignity exists in believers and not-yet believers, even our enemies (5:43-44). The worth of every individual is the bedrock of Western civilization because of the historic influence of Christianity. The church speaks to justice without needing modifiers (social justice, economic justice, political justice) because we are a community called together by the Author of all justice.
3. Everyone in the church is a sinner saved by grace (2:8-9). Therefore, our faith and actions must be independent of wealth, class, gender, skin color, tribe, or nationality (Gal. 3:28). The ground is level at the foot of the cross of Christ and before the opened tomb. Our collective identity is in Christ (2 Cor. 5:17).
4. The church exists to exalt God and serve others, not ourselves. Each person is made for good work and, as Christians, we are to honor the use of the gifts we’ve been given and are stewards of the gospel message. We are not to abuse our gifts for our own self-promotion. The church relies upon the reliable guide of inspired scripture and the ongoing work of the Holy Spirit, which is a check against human pride and the damaging use of authority.
5. The church supports the family, which is the fundamental unit of society, and the vulnerable. No solutions to divisions can come without protecting and nurturing families and the vulnerable. Godly transformed hearts and minds put the interests of others first (2:4), especially the widow, orphan, prisoner, and the poor.
6. The church does not seek to supplant the role of government or the market. The church occupies its space in the human fabric, influencing the culture like salt (5:13) without demanding control of other spheres of power. The church does not deny the importance of tribal and national identities, yet in Christ, offers the citizenship of heaven (Phil. 3:20).
7. The church is global and also operates effectively at the local level. The church is demonstrably adaptable through centuries of technical, economic, and social changes. It operates on timeless principles under the direction of the Holy Spirit. The gospel message is universal and effective for all people in all times and in all cultures.

No economic or political organization has the design and capability to heal divisions. In fact, many other organizations by their nature thrive on divisions and separations.

Since the church is truly the best institution for bridging the divisions that plague us and keep us from peace, what can each of us do?

First, serve your local congregation. There is only one church, the bride of Christ (Rev. 19:7), but there are many congregations. God has equipped you to participate in this work of reconciliation with your gifts.

Second, pray that the church will have a powerful influence in all spheres of culture on decision-makers and leaders in every realm. Look up and ahead, focusing on God’s mighty power to impact leadership (Prov. 21:1), rather than on our human weakness. Know that you can have an impact by serving others where God has placed you.

Third, act on every opportunity to point people to Jesus. God invites us to participate in sharing the gospel and has prepared many hearts to receive him (John 4:35). The grace of God is endless and, therefore, we have endless room in the church.

God invites us to be ministers of reconciliation (2 Cor. 5:18-20). Please pray with me that the conversations in our communities will soon be full of praise to God for acting through his people to heal every division and hurt.

(Note: this is adapted slightly from my January 2018 article on tifwe.org)

What does the Bible tell us about “race relations” and living together well as people who come from many backgrounds, tribes, and nations? Christians must start with God’s revelation to us in His Word.

Every person is intrinsically valuable, made in the image of God (Genesis 1:27). Every person is “fearfully and wonderfully made (Psalm 139:14).

Because of sin, our natural inclinations are not in line with God’s ways (Genesis 8:21).  We need a transformed heart (Ezekiel 36:26) and mind (Romans 12:2) to be in right relationship with God and with one another (John 3:3).

The Bible speaks of families, tribes, and nations and the human race. This is remarkable and consistent with modern biological understanding that there is only the human race (technically: Homo sapiens sapiens).  

There are three themes which repeatedly show up in the Old Testament instruction to the nation of Israel:
1. Treat aliens and strangers well, because you were aliens and strangers in Egypt (e.g., Exodus 22:21)
2. Care for the poor and the vulnerable (“widows and orphans”) (e.g.,Exodus 23:11)
3. Judge justly, and promote justice. (e.g., Leviticus 19:15)
It is up to us to obey God’s instruction. God punished the people of Israel (and other nations) when they did not follow His instruction.  

Jesus emphasized the two great commandments: Love God, and love your neighbor as yourself (Matthew 22:36-40). We are called to love neighbors without regard to what they believe, or where they come from. This was a key point of the parable of the Good Samaritan (Luke 10:25-37). Loving ourselves properly is hard work; loving others properly is also hard work.

Jesus took his disciples into foreign territory (Samaria, and the Decapolis), not for a short-term missions experience, but a significant cross-cultural ministry strategy. He demonstrated God’s love and concern for these “foreigners.” He commanded his disciples to take the Gospel message from Jerusalem to Judea, Samaria, and the world. (Acts 1:8) This is a fulfillment of the overall Biblical message of God reaching out to the entire world, to all peoples, all cultures (see Isaiah 49:22 for one example).

The Church from it’s earliest days has wrestled with living as Christ-transformed people, each of us a work in progress, in multi-ethnic congregations worshipping one Lord. A significant fraction of the New Testament letters are about how to live with different people with a common identify in Christ. This new identity in Christ is a basis for cross-cultural unity.

Repentance (Matthew 3:8), receiving forgiveness (Matthew 26:28), and reconciliation (2 Corinthians 5:18) are beautiful elements in proper relationship with God and with others. These have to do with behaviors, not the immutable characteristics of our identity (e.g., it’s not a Christian idea to ask forgiveness for skin color or gender which is part of how a person was created by God).

Christians are commanded to submit to one another in love, out of reverence for Christ. (Ephesians 5:21, 1 Peter 5:5)  We fear and worship God, show appropriate respect to government, and honor everyone. (1 Peter 2:17) No one is justified in looking down at others (Luke 18:9-14, Romans 14:4).

The world will recognize Christians by how they love one another (John 13:35).  We love because Christ loved us first (1 John 4:19).

Living “in step” with the Holy Spirit will be a blessing to us and others, but is not a promise that people will create heaven on earth, or avoiding suffering and persecution(Matthew 24:9, 2 Timothy 3:12).   God’s creation — including us — is struggling in the current time and long for God’s restoration (Romans 8:22).  The return of Jesus will set everything right (described in Isaiah 61, fulfilled in Revelation).  

The Bible teaches that there are dark powers operating in opposition to the will of God (starting in Genesis 3:1).  Our enemies are the “principalities and powers,” not individual people (Ephesians 6:12). We must not be ignorant of these schemes (2 Corinthians 2:11). There are clearly forces at work which fuel hatred and discord for their purposes. God wins in the end (see Revelation).

God is sovereign and not surprised by anything. We do not understand the full extent or timing of His plans (Isaiah 55:9), but put our confidence in Him rather than ourselves (Philippians 3:9).  God is not confident in us, but perfectly confident in Himself working in and through us.

There may be no better summary of the characteristics of leaders than this, from the final instructions Paul gives at the end of 1 Corinthians:

Be watchful, stand firm in the faith, act like men, be strong. Let all that you do be done in love (1 Corinthians 16:13-14).

• Leaders are watchful – they observe, they stand guard against that which would destroy, they persevere. They study the world and perceive trends. Leaders anticipate dangers and opportunities.
• Leaders stand firm in the faith – they stand rather than wobble, they stand rather than run. Leaders stand on truth with a worldview giving them both purpose and courage.
• Leaders act in boldness and gentleness, influencing and shaping others around them. Leaders put others first. They lead from the front: “First in the attack and last in the retreat.”
• Leaders are strong – others can count on them. Leaders have enough strength to share and embolden others. Leaders protect and provide for others by using their strengths.
• Leaders do everything in love – they’re tough on issues and tender with people. The best leadership is love.

(Note: This was originally published at tifwe.org)