It’s been a long year, even if it has zipped by quickly. We’re already busy getting ready for Christmas and family time. People at work are obviously weary and ready for an ending break. We naturally start to wonder about next year. I noticed that The Economist magazine has again published their thick annual forecast issue. Pundits will soon make many predictions.
We are better using the word ‘anticipate’ rather than predict because predicting specific events is outside our capacity. We can reasonably study trends and patterns and anticipate probabilities.
I anticipate 2024 to be a year of chaos. Presidential election years generally amplify distress. Inflation may be slowing but prices remain high. Expect continued debates about major policy direction (with concomitant blame shifting), made even more contentious by large populations of ill-informed and mal-informed citizens. Already there are multiple active wars and tense conflicts threatening to become wars. Significant government leadership changes will happen in some countries. The ag world is more uncertain going into 2024, which affects food availability and pricing. Manufacturing bases are shifting away from China. The uneven technology advances drive uncomfortable changes. These are macro factors; you can add in your personal situation factors from family, health, job, and local community issues.
Maybe 2024 will be only slightly more chaotic than some other years. I anticipate that 2028-2035 may be more difficult still, because of financial factors which can’t be deferred.
Francis Schaeffer’s great question remains helpful: “How then shall we live?”
2024 will present many opportunities to grow through adversity. A section of forest near our house burned in a brushfire less than 3 months ago. Scorched tree trunks. All the vines and low shrubs and palmettoes were reduced to ash. Yet every plant with an extensive root structure immediately began growing again, pushing greenery up through the ash layer. There’s one lesson for living through chaos: Develop deep roots.
I anticipate new opportunities to focus on what’s valuable. The most valuable thing I wear every day is my wedding ring. It cost $40 in 1987, which was a lot of money when we were grad students. There isn’t much gold in it. The ring is precious to me because it’s from my beloved and represents all the goodness of God’s gifts to me through her. Witnessing chaotic times gives us stark comparisons to understand what is ultimately valuable and what will pass away.
Jesus gives his disciples an interesting command, helpful in chaotic times: “Salt is good, but if it loses its saltiness, how can you make it salty again? Have salt among yourselves, and be at peace with each other.” (Mark 9:50, NIV) “Have salt” – preservative, flavorful, necessary for life – “among yourselves” – not hidden, not hoarded, but in fellowship. Saltiness supports peace in the community. No bland living! Connect this with Jesus’ commentary in the next chapter: whoever wants to become great among you must be your servant, and whoever wants to be first must be slave of all. (Mark 10:43-44, NIV) Mutual humility and service are a bulwark against chaos. Don’t go alone against chaos.
Chaotic environments often make us hurried. Hurried people make more mistakes, stumble, and misinterpret events. John Wooden, the iconic UCLA basketball coach, trained his players in quickness without hurry. There’s a subtle distinction there. Quickness is valuable, hurry leads to trouble. Quickness is conditioning under control, like gentleness is strength under control. Conditioning is both mental and physical. Staving off the effects of chaos in our personal lives will require quickness of mind and spirit. These must be developed over time; preparation counts more, because we cannot summon quickness in the moment of crisis.
Chaos consumes resources but returns little worthwhile. Chaos therefore leaves less for the wise to use – time, energy, material. Chaos amplifies the normal friction of everyday life in a universe built on entropy principles. [Sidebar: Read Warfighting for the best explanation of friction and uncertainty.] Therefore, countering chaos requires us to be more efficient with the resources remaining to us. We must become maximizers of what we have, wasting no time grumbling about what we lack. In physiological terms, we want a good VO2 max with an efficient running stride.
Something encouraging to remember: Many of the greatest companies and most influential people in history began in times of chaos. You can choose to be the person who runs towards the opportunities created amidst chaos.
I’m speaking abstractly about chaos and countering chaos. Ponder what I’ve written here and consider how it applies to your situation. It might shape your private goals in 2024.
