There is considerable power in simplifying. Amazon makes it simple for customers to find products, buy easily, and get them delivered fast. Equipment manufacturers work hard to simplify user experience and production/maintenance. Organization leaders strive for simple messaging. Organizations absorb immense amounts of complexity to create simplicity for customers and employees. We even celebrate Occam’s Razor which says that when presented with competing hypotheses to solve a problem, one should select the solution with the fewest assumptions.
We long for simple, and respond to simple, because it’s harder to manage the complexity of the actual system-of-many-systems world we inhabit.
Simple can also be a trap, and is often used in deception. We must guard against simplistic assumptions. Let’s work through some examples:
“This is the only solution!” History is filled with examples of alternatives which people were blind to, or refused to explore, or couldn’t imagine.
“We need a new [neighbor/boss/new CEO/new ruler/new government] and then everything will be ok!” Possible but unlikely. At best you’ll have different problems, and if you prefer those problems, that will be progress. Most of the European aristocracy power was gone after WW1 which created different political challenges, not necessarily better.
“If people had listened to me it would have turned out better!” It might have been different, but you can’t know it would be “better.” We can’t do split-test experiments.
“Everything was better in [time period]. It’s all screwed up now.” My grandfather lamented this, saying everything was better in the 1950’s. My black friend from Alabama and my colleagues from India and China would disagree.
“If we drastically cut CO2 emissions and get back to 300ppm all these bad weather events will stop.” The last time CO2 levels were at that level was 1915-1935, and millions of people were killed or dislocated by floods, hurricanes, and droughts. Weather is not perfectly correlated to CO2 levels in the atmosphere; there are many more factors.
“I just need to cut out X from my diet and I’ll lose weight and have better health.” The amount of variation of experiences with diets is incredible. A specific plan might generally help for any individual or group, but results vary.
“I’m being held back by [my parents/spouse/children/boss/”the man”/racism/sexism/neighborhood/lack of ___/government].” Everyone has smaller and larger obstacles. You still control your effort, beliefs, attitude, action, integrity, willingness to learn, thoughts, and generosity. Will you prefer the simplistic narrative of helpless victim or create a different narrative?
“It’s so-and-so’s fault!” We operate in systems-within-systems, so it’s incredibly unlikely that one person is solely to blame.
“The whole world would be better off if we were exclusively [vegetarian/organic/fitness junkies/environmentalists/humble and charitable/renewable energy/rural/urban/digital currency/technophiles/screen-free/gun owners/gun-free/one political party/one religion/religion-free/appropriately indoctrinated/etc]!” Are you qualified to make that judgment?
You might read these and think, “People don’t speak about these topics so simplistically, Glenn.” Many do not, and some do. Some assumptions are more implied (by behavior) than explicitly spoken.
I observe that people invest enormous emotional energy into these simplistic assumptions. Smart leaders detach themselves from assumptions and revisit them carefully. They step back, consider the situation, evaluate both facts and emotions, get other input if helpful, and then choose how to respond.
The other key leadership capability is to think in terms of tradeoffs. Simplistic assumptions fail because the underlying mindset glosses over related factors and tradeoffs in decision-making. There are many interacting factors (you might not even know them all), and we cannot optimize for everything at once. Everything you choose to optimize will come at some cost of money, attention, quality, time, and/or energy.
The first thing I encourage you to do is check yourself. Where might you be making simplistic assumptions that inhibit your ability to think clearly and make wise decisions?
