There were a series of events in the US in the 1970’s – all sincere, responding to desires in the time– which have had profound effects on our culture:
- No fault divorce (first legalized in California in 1970)
- Establishing Earth Day (1970) to anchor more attention to clean air and water
- Abandoning the gold standard (1971) which accelerated fiat currency practices
- Roe v. Wade (1973) which made abortion legal nation-wide
- Exiting the Vietnam war (1975)
These, building on events in the 1960’s (e.g., Civil Rights legislation, the massive increase in federal social spending, introduction of the Pill, Marxist ideologies gaining credence in universities, TV becoming a dominant news and entertainment medium) have profoundly shaped the US over the past 50-60 years. It’s concurrent with the rise of widespread granting of decisive authority to inner feelings rather than from institutions and social structures.
These events came after the momentous global changes from WW1, the Great Depression, the rise of Communist states, WW2, the rebuilding of Europe and Japan, the beginning of the Cold War, and more.
Earlier than this you consider the consequences of the Franco-Prussian war, the consolidation of kingdoms in India, the American Civil War, the Napoleonic era, the Ottoman Empire, and so on. I haven’t even mentioned all that occurred in Asia and South America!
I continue to ponder all the connections and implications. Maybe someone will have enough perspective in 2200 to explain the impacts of the 1900’s more accurately.
An acquaintance, long-time Economist subscriber, told me that he has kept the annual “forecast” issues published each December about the year ahead. “They’re amazingly wrong,” he said. “Very little of their forecast turned out to be correct.”
They wrote these predictions with great confidence. What does it tell us that a group of smart people have this much difficulty predicting the events and trends in next 12-18 months? We’re addicted to punditry on current events and predictions about what comes next, even if we know they’re more likely to be wrong than correct. We somehow weight the confidence of their statements much more than we care about their track record of accuracy.
So many changes have happened, so frequently, that we must avoid the error of assuming the future is a short extrapolation of the present. It’s difficult (and uncomfortable) to imagine a future radically different than our immediate past, but major transformations will happen.
A lesson that I’m still learning: Lean into changes and work for the best, rather than leaning back fearfully and hoping someone else makes it all better.
You don’t need to embrace everything new. Tik-tok is now the most-visited website in the world and your life will be fine if you decide not to go there. Retain your power of choice.
Lean into changes when they are reality now. Don’t waste energy being angry or resentful when reality foists changes upon you. Be prepared for different scenarios, while being skeptical about anyone ability to correctly predict future events.
