I hear more people talking openly now about a “cold war” with Chinese Communist Party leadership. God forbid we get into a “hot” war! It would be a mistake to think about fighting this cold war the same way the West defeated the USSR. Both regimes deeply believe in Communism, but there are three significant differences between the Soviets then and the CPP now:
One. The Soviets had no ethnic center. They fostered communism to all kinds of people groups, across the globe, to build a political empire. By contrast, the CPP is strongly Chinese. They consciously create almost-enslaving economic ties with many countries (see their Belt & Road initiative) but have little interest in building up leadership or political centers which they perceive as non-Chinese.
Two. The Western nations had very little economic exchange with the USSR. Westerners did not invest in Soviet businesses, and the USSR exported almost nothing to the West. The US government loaned them money to buy US grain in multiple years. The CPP leverages economics heavily as a strategic weapon. They learned from the failures of the USSR and adopted economic strategies that supported the fantastic recovery of Germany after WW1 under the Nazis (e.g., fiat money, state control of key businesses, propaganda). The global manufacturing picture and supply chains were completely transformed by China’s ability to become a low-cost manufacturing center within a few years of joining the WTO. The West has benefitted from cheap goods. Remember Thomas Sowell’s pithy insight about economics: There are no solutions, only tradeoffs. Note that both the Soviet and CPP leadership have been willing to sacrifice economically when it served state interests.
Three. There were relatively few Soviet citizens in Western universities and cities. The Soviets had limited ways to influence academia, news media, sports, and entertainment. The CCP learned from this and openly fund academic programs, aggressively work in media circles, and leverage all kinds of market pressure on professional sports and entertainment. They’ve cultivated influence in the attitude-shaping institutions.
The wisdom of generals failing because “they fight the last war” applies.
(I am compelled to remind you that I have multiple Chinese friends, in China and elsewhere in the world. I have no animus against individuals. My observations are about the political leadership. Remember that in geopolitics nations are never friends, it’s only a question of aligned interests. I would rejoice to see a billion people in China with deep liberties and economically thriving.)
