You’ve heard the story: “Cortez burned his ships at the shore and told his men, “The only way home is by conquering the Aztecs! No other option!” to motivate them.
Didn’t happen.
Cortez arrived in Mexico with 12 ships. He ran 9 ships into the sand – which meant they couldn’t be used against him. He kept 3 for the return journey, but pressed all the sailors into his invasion force. He also kept a master shipbuilder on his invasion team. One reason he ran ships aground was to prevent any of his crew from heading back to Cuba to report to the Spanish authorities that he had launched an unauthorized expedition against Mexico; Cortez had only been authorized for trading, not a military expedition. (Source: John Coatsworth, director of Harvard’s Center for Latin American studies)
Even had he burned the ships, it would have been crappy leadership.
Leaders need to take calculated risks, and have backup plans. A mentor of mine describes a portfolio of business work like this: “One long-shot and three fish in a barrel.” Don’t bet everything on a single long-shot. Getting the fish in the barrel is still work, but high probability, and will cover your costs and carry you forward. Fish-in-the-barrel work can also give you insights and experience that helps you achieve a long-shot.
The long-shot is a desirable objective that is higher risk but much higher payoff. The most challenging risks are time-oriented; this is why startups are so concerned about cash burn rate – can they make it to a point where they’re bringing in revenue? Often a long-shot is an exercise in overcoming limiting fears.
A final comment about the value of long-shot work: Life is too short to settle for only fish-in-the-barrel work. You’re made for great things.
