There are significant changes, and some things are quite different than the past. Here is my list of the most significant disruptor factors in play (even if I cannot easily forecast the consequences):
- New technologies fueling new business opportunities: 5G wireless, 3D manufacturing, algorithms, augmented reality, sensor proliferation, anti-aging meds, quantum computing, robotics, etc.
- Political “solutions” to address wealth inequality
- Decisions related to halt/mitigate climate change
- Government and pension debt, and actions of central banks
- Ageing populations, global demographics
- Accelerated urbanization
- Deglobalization of manufacturing and trade
- The human being’s place in the workforce – employees, contractors, gig work
Standing amidst the 5th century monastery ruins at Glendalough in the Wicklow mountains south of Dublin, I pondered our obsession with the “exceptional Now,” always thinking “it’s different this time.”
These things make it difficult for us to truly understand the tides and motions of history:
- Our myopia for immediate place and within our lifetime
- Our failure to appreciate the small events which have disproportionately large effects
- The deep interconnection of geography, farming and industry, religion, and tribal history of people groups
- The small percentage of institutions lasting more than a century
- Political will and mankind’s ambitions
- Biases in historical narrative (history is largely written by the winners)
- How little we know of history before 2800 BCE
The consequences of events plays out over hundreds thousands of years. Zhou Enlai, a Chinese philosopher and politician, when asked in the early 1970s about the significance of the French Revolution, answered, “Too early to say.”
I intentionally juxtapose these two lists to keep us humble.
