Month: September 2024

An AI Counselor?

Is it ok to trust machines (specifically, ai) more than people to give you useful guidance?  We like the convenience and speed of asking Alexa for the weather report, and Google answers to straightforward questions like “What is the population of Summerhill, PA?”  We should be more cautious about queries like “Why do Muslims hate Jews?” or “What are the strengths and weaknesses of the US Constitution?” because the responses will reflect perspectives in the source data. So far, so good.

What about “How should I handle this situation with my marriage?” and “How can I stop feeling resentful of my dad’s dementia?”  Will people trust an ai more than a person to provide guidance about career choices, business strategy, international diplomacy?  These are huge leaps from “What is the weather in Boise?” because they require judgment and wisdom.

I expect ai will be most disruptive short-term (in businesses) for marketing, including copywriting and SEO.  It’s rapidly replacing human work in those domains.  Any situation which can be represented mathematically (e.g., it fits into a spreadsheet) is prime for algorithms and machine-learning.  Generating new text, audio, and video content from prompts will continue to get better – though it’s all derivative of what already exists.  Powerful tools, indeed.

That leaves a lot for humans.  Including the imagination to prompt an ai. 

Reminder to self, you’re welcome to listen:  AI cannot change human behavior problems. 

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Incentive Structures

Even a cursory study of system dynamics and economics helps you become better at analyzing situations via incentive structures. 

Few politicians can get re-elected after saying “I was wrong about X.”  Saying “I was wrong” is hard for any of us.  Therefore, we should not be surprised that politicians have excuses, lie about their previous position, or try the artful “I’ve evolved.”

It’s easy for legislators to yammer about simplifying regulations and tax codes.  Significantly changing it?  The power to implement regulations and tax codes is their primary power tool.   Sincere individuals also find out that the power of the larger system with many participants benefitting from the status quo is much larger than the individual trying to change it.

Where else can you spot incentive structures?

Our species is addicted to comfort. Change is difficult.  Progress always requires going through discomfort. 

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Source and Accelerants

Fire investigators distinguish the initial source of the fire, and accelerants which made the fire worse. 

People blame many things for our social struggles:  glut data and information, social media amplifying narratives, poverty, unequal opportunities for education and jobs, drugs, alcohol, ultra-processed foods and obesity, identity confusion.  (Surely I’ve missed some.)  These aren’t root causes, they’re accelerants. 

You can also distinguish core strengths, and force multipliers.  A great product or service is a core strength; the sales system and customer service are force multipliers.  Employee resilience and capacity to learn are force multipliers, as are alliances in your supply chain.  Neighbors caring for neighbors might be a core strength of a community, but certainly neighbors who are alert to events and threats is a force multiplier. 

Truly great products don’t need accelerants to succeed.  It’s often easier to add accelerants and force multipliers to a weak product than to build a great product from scratch.  Smart leaders should be thinking about everything together to shape superior systems of systems.

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New book! “Reminders to Self”

I’m delighted to announce that Reminders to Self is available now!  Thanks very much for your support and encouragement. 

I hope these help you even more than they have helped me, and that you start capturing your own personal Reminders to Self. 

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Quantum Computing, Virtual Reality, and Digital Currency

A reader asked for my views on quantum computing.  My response:

Aside from cryptography, I don’t see quantum computing as a strategic game-changer.  It could help in sophisticated modeling.  It won’t speed up the algorithms we’ve already developed.  We have a successful pipeline of compute capabilities for 99% of our digital needs.  We’re good at optimizing for increased efficiency.

Should we continue to explore and develop quantum computing?  Yes, because of cryptography, which is crucial in geopolitical security and war.  Yes, because it could help us create more powerful predictive models of complex events like hurricanes and epidemics. 

And then she asked me about virtual reality.  My response:

There is some VR success in gaming, but I suspect we’re years from mass acceptance and ubiquitous use.  It’s a difficult technology to implement for large populations because of the wide range of human perception capabilities and strengths.  Meta’s VR group reported $16B in operating losses in one year trying to develop immersive VR and has begun cutting staff. 

I expect people will continue to develop VR.  The dream future is compelling to too many people to quit now.

My question:  Given all we’re learning about the limitations of interaction-via-digital-screens (and health dangers), will there be a push for IRL (in real life) as more desirable? 

Another reader asked for my view on digital currencies (not crypto, but sovereign-backed currencies). 

They’re inevitable.  Some definite upsides for efficiency and versatility, and some downsides if you have a corrupt government.  Think Singapore vs. Venezuela.  A government will need to produce significant evidence of controls to persuade more to use it, given widespread institutional distrust today.  Adoption will be a small step for many citizens who are transacting with cards far more than cash.

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What Ties the Levels Together?

Groups are more than the sum of the individuals.  Ecological systems are more than the sum of all the organisms, water, soil, and atmosphere. We cannot explain cellular biology with chemistry.  Chemistry cannot be fully explained with quantum physics.  The properties of rocks and metal alloys cannot be fully explained at their atomic structural level.  There are mysteries about subatomic particles which are unlikely to be explained fully by their sub-components.

We live in a universe of systems upon systems upon systems.  The connections are real.  You can dive deep and find cause and effect relationships.  Yet the effort to break the complex and complicated down into ever smaller component parts never yields full understanding. You need information outside the system to understand the system (See Godel’s Incompleteness Theorems).

A significant fraction of disease research, especially cancer, is directed at finding the gene, the receptor protein, the drug, the parts of the machine.  The fundamental belief is that the body is purely a machine. After decades of effort and trillions of dollars, with little to show beyond early detection, I suggest we consider whether we’re looking in the right place and should find another perspective.

I see the same tendency to “diagnose and treat” the weaknesses and failings of human organizations, from family to small and large businesses to governments and citizens.  Consultants and program managers and therapists say, “Let’s break this down into parts we can work with.”  The few successes are disproportionately small considering the immense efforts involved.

Here is a fundamental truth about systems:  There is always something which can be done to shape the trajectory of a system. 

Feel fee to call me crazy, but I’m convinced now the way to change a system is not through mechanics, but through story, music, and poetry.    

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Recognition: The Leadership Art of Making Work and People Visible

Employees value recognition.  Most employees when surveyed say they don’t get enough recognition.  In this article I’ll give you insights about the recognition problem and some straightforward ways you can build more recognition into the culture of your organization.

Lack of recognition is invisibility.  People who feel invisible, not recognized, say these kinds of things:

  • I do good work, nobody notices.
  • I prevent problems, but only the heroics get attention.
  • All the TY comments are ’empty’ leadership words.
  • I’m invisible to the big boss, just a worker drone.
  • I only hear criticisms from my boss and the people we deliver to.
  • I assume our job is important, but it would be nice to know for sure.
  • SusieQ gets attention for some reason, but not the rest of us.
  • My boss gets recognized, but she doesn’t share that with the worker bees who made it happen.

It’s possible to appreciate the wrong things.  That’s a real concern.  But you’re not likely to do too much recognition.  The English word ‘recognize’ come from Latin, re “again” + congnoscere “to get to know.”  Recognition is about knowing and making known.  One of the features of high-performing teams is abundant feedback and recognition.

To avoid creating cynicism (deadly to a high-performing culture), your recognition must be sincere.  We get the English word sincere from Latin, too.  It means “without wax.”  There’s a fun story behind this word.  As the Roman middle class developed there was a growing demand for marble sculptures.  Unscrupulous teams of sculptures would show up in an area and rapidly create sculptures at a price, then leave town.  Their shoddy work was revealed after a few weeks of hot Tuscan sun, because the wax mixed with marble dust melted out of the cracks and defects in the sculptures.  Reputable marble sculpture shops would put a sign out saying ‘San cera,’ meaning ‘without wax.’ 

Your recognition must be without wax, able to stand up in the heat of experience. 

The leadership art of recognition has three key objectives:

  1. Make work and people visible
  2. Celebrate positive behaviors which contribute to results & relationships
  3. Articulate the value of the behavior/results

Too many leaders think recognition needs to be big to be effective.  An ocean is many drops of water.  Many small moments of recognition become a wave of energizing power in an organization.  Be patient, be consistent, and the effects will compound over time!

Let’s review five practices – all practical! – which will help your organization grow and thrive, even in difficult times.

Practice #1: Positive feedback

Give positive feedback on effective work, or progress.  It can be quick and simple. 

Easy model:  “When you do <observable behavior> it helps our organization <in this way> .  Thank you and keep it up!” (HT to the wonderful folks at manager-tools.com for this model)

Practice #2:  Words of appreciation lubricate relationships

Saying please, thank you, and you’re welcome honors the value of people.  It’s not just polite.  Yes, doing things is “their job” but you should still be sincerely appreciative.  If you cynical about this, then at least understand expressing appreciation is a tool to get more volunteer spirit. 

I’m known for asking, “Have I said thank you lately?” It’s a powerful way to express appreciation, and people will feel recognized.

Next level: Written thank you notes stand out in a digital world.  I know several successful leaders who keep a stash of notecards for this purpose.

Practice #3:  Call attention to behaviors which build up the team

No one is an island; we’re working as a team.  Leaders should look for opportunities to call attention to behaviors which build up the team.  You’ll get more of these behaviors when you recognize them:

  • Problem prevention (not just heroic fire-fighting)
  • Positive energy
  • Smiles and healthy humor
  • Willingness to take on extra work
  • Sharing credit
  • Cross-training, teaching others
  • Process and practice improvement
  • One person encouraging another
  • Setting high standards for excellent work

All these act as deposits in the “trust accounts,” which fuels a high-performing culture.  You will get more of what gets publicly and privately recognized. 

Practice #4: Email notifications to the boss

Send a specific and descriptive email to your boss about the accomplishments of a team member.  Don’t just forward a long conversation thread with a comment like “Bob is doing great work” and expect them to figure out what Bob has done.  Write a separate email, with an easy to scan format, saying what was done and the value it brings.  People like to get an email that’s not about a problem they have to solve!

Bonus tip: Ask your team member to write an email you can forward; add a few comments of your own about the value delivered. 

Doing this consistently will pay off in the future when you’re making the case for promotions and raises. 

Practice # 5:  Arrange for more time with leaders and customers

Giving your team time with other leaders, and especially customers who benefit from your team’s work, is a good way to recognize them.  You’re also giving these people an opportunity to say thank you and generate some goodwill, which they’ll appreciate.

Invite a senior leader to talk with your team for 15-30 minutes.  Invite a customer to share at your group meeting.  Invite an interesting leader to come for a coffee break informal discussion. These don’t need to be big, formal occasions to be effective.  I’ve rarely been turned down when making these invitations, though sometimes you’ll have to reschedule because of other priorities for senior leaders. 

There you go, five straightforward practices you can use to build up your organization through recognition.  Let us know in the comments if you have other suggestions!

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