Month: January 2024

There’s an intriguing concept called ‘playing on tilt’ in gaming and sports which carries over to leadership.  The chess player blunders a major piece, gets rattled, makes two more bad decisions, and is checkmated by an inferior player.  She says “Let’s play again” and loses again in frustration.  Or the basketball player makes a few defensive mistakes and gets angry, then fouls out.  The video game industry has made billions of dollars from kids (of all ages) playing one round after another in frustration. Playing on tilt means playing when you’re not in full control.

The way to keep yourself from playing on tilt is to take 5 minutes, move around to get your blood circulating, and take a few deep calming breaths.  Only then should you proceed.

You’re wise to be 3 minutes late to a meeting rather than going into the meeting playing on tilt.  Self-control matters immensely.

I’m a words guy, and respect numbers.  Numbers have weight. Numbers help us make decisions. Numbers can help us distinguish signal and noise. Yet, like words, numbers can be selectively presented, carefully constructed, to reinforce narratives.

I write as one who has been fooled by numbers and narratives many times, going back to the ecocatastrophe predictions of the early 1970s.  I was caught up in some numbers recently, convinced and confident, only to choke down my error in personal disgust. (Too embarrassing to tell now, give me 15 years.)

I encourage you to be discerning about numbers that are presented to you.  Here are some tips.

An average is less informative than a distribution and a trend. How was the number determined, and by whom?  What are the subsets that make up a single number?  Let’s consider an example.

Every month the US government gives a report about the number of new jobs.  It’s encouraging to see that people are finding employment.  Yet we need to understand the overall number by breaking it down, and understanding the process.

My understanding – correct me if I’m wrong:

•             The number does not distinguish between part-time and full-time-with-benefits jobs.

•             The number does not call out second (and third) jobs people are taking on to earn more income.

•             The number is revised (almost always downward) within 2-3 months, because of the crude way the information is collected via multiple surveys. 

•             There is a breakout by industry/category. In 2023 most of the new jobs created were in government, leisure, and healthcare.  Manufacturing is flat-to-down. Info-tech is down.

Another example, common in a political framework:  Polling numbers for a president, governor, or legislator.  I don’t usually see survey questions reported with the results (how convenient), even though we know that how a question is asked shapes the responses. I recently saw that less than 1/3 of those polled are satisfied with how the current US government leadership is responding to climate change.  The 2/3rds who are unsatisfied are surely a mix of people – some thinking it’s hogwash, and some demanding much more be done.

Be mindful that how numbers are calculated changes over time.  The Consumer Price Index, Gross Domestic Product, Unemployment, Inflation Rate… all these are composite numbers.  The method of determining each of them has shifted over the years.  For example, the CPI used to include a specific basket of grocery items.  That basket has changed, and fuel is no longer included in the same way.  Sometimes these representative numbers were adjusted for sincere reasons, and occasionally for political convenience.  The net effect, however, is that you must be suspicious of charts of these numbers over years of time.

Charts are useful and still merit caution. Watch out for graphs that don’t have a zero on the axis, or no numbers at all.  Check the start and stop dates on trend line graphs.  (Good example: Nearly all the US temperature graphs you’ll see begin in the late 1970s, which were the coldest years on record in the northern hemisphere in the 20th century, rather than the 1930’s, which were the hottest years.)  Think carefully about correlations because they may not represent causation. 

Don’t be shocked by unequal distributions.  “80/20” is not a physical law but unequal distributions are common (70/30, 95/5, 99/1).  Unequal distributions do not automatically mean something is wrong or unfair. 

Low probability events will happen.  Streaks of repeats occur in random sequences. Be wary of assigning blame or consequence to these.

An average from larger sample is more likely to be correct than an average of a smaller sample.  But larger data sets will inherently have more false positives and false negatives based on how measurements are done.  There is simply more noise in a larger data set, which means it’s easier to find “what you want” in messy data.

Innumeracy (the numbers equivalent of illiteracy) is a significant problem.  I cringe when I hear an activist say “It’s outrageous that 25% of the students are the bottom quartile!”  Median and average are different.  Percent rate changes and actual prices are different. 

Our general psychology also makes us vulnerable, even when we’re well-educated. Horoscopes and fortune-telling are a perpetual business because we’re susceptible to cleverness. We all tend to relax our guard when the source is comfortable and familiar.  We’re Captain Skeptical when “those” people give a number, and Lieutenant Lax when one of “our” side present numbers. We assign conspiratorial intent to a decision based on tradeoffs. We never question some statistics and automatically dismiss others. We should be equally careful. 

We over-weight two predictions made by a psychic or an economist and ignore the 98 times they were wrong.  Stock market bears will eventually be right.  Occasionally some fragment of a dream appears like a prediction in retrospect. Critics and doomsayers sound smart, and so do market bulls.  Someone pointed out that 85% of economists expected a serious general recession in the US in 2023.  (I think some industries and sub-markets did have a recession, but not uniformly; the company I worked for did very well in 2008-2009, despite the subprime mortgage crisis.)  Many expect a recession in 2024.  Eventually some will be right! 

Numbers can be great friends and tools, or weapons.  Use them well.

Every engagement survey I’ve ever seen has a significant number of people responding “We’re overworked.  We’re too busy. We don’t have time.”  Many people will automatically say “I’m so busy!” when asked how they’re doing. 

Cinch your belt, let’s review a few facts:

• Busy is a four-letter word and a poor metric.  Busy at what, exactly?  What are you producing and delivering?  Are you productively busy like a honeybee, or buzzing busy like a mosquito?
  
  
• Work expands to fill the time available.  Focused effort can shrink the time required for a task. I note that whiners tend to be highly inefficient in their work. “The problem is not that life is short, but that we waste so much of it.”  (Seneca wisdom, and many others) 

• The reward for squeezing valuable work into less time and effort is the resource to do more and better work.  Yes, it’s a reward, not a curse.

• We cannot do everything, and don’t need to.  Choices and prioritization are lifelong crafts.

• Most of the time, people do what they want to.  We’re commonly bad at wanting the best things.

Your choice of phrasing can help.  Instead of busy, you can say:

“I’m richly scheduled.”

“I have wonderful projects in flight.”

“There is an exciting list of next good things after what I’m doing now.”

“I’m fully engaged.”  (The people running the engagement surveys will like that one!)

I saw an ad for a webinar promising this: “Silence your inner critic once and for all.” 

Call me skeptical.  Our inner critics have phenomenal staying power. 

Our inner critic can keep us from reaching our potential when we over-weight his comments.  (I have multiple inner critics, all male.)  He adds to our hesitancy to even begin, let alone drive through to a finish line. 

Our inner critic does play important roles.  He serves a counterforce I must work against, which strengthen me and shows me my faults to overcome.  I’m better because of the battle. He also slows me from sliding into ditches and potholes. People who truly lack an inner critic are dangerous narcissists who wreak damage.   Let’s acknowledge that our inner critics sometimes have a point and can keep us upright. 

My beloved had a wonderful way of describing death to our children.  “Remember those times when you fell asleep somewhere, and woke up in your own bed at home?  We carried you while you slept and tucked you in.  Death is like that.  You’ll go to sleep here and wake up in your beautiful heavenly home.”

I rather like Tolkien’s description, in a conversation between Pippen and Gandalf:

“PIPPIN: I didn’t think it would end this way.
GANDALF: End? No, the journey doesn’t end here. Death is just another path, one that we all must take. The grey rain-curtain of this world rolls back, and all turns to silver glass, and then you see it.
PIPPIN: What? Gandalf? See what?
GANDALF: White shores, and beyond, a far green country under a swift sunrise.
PIPPIN: Well, that isn’t so bad.
GANDALF: No. No, it isn’t.”

Without being morbid, I think it’s important to ponder our death, so that we live better.

The headlines are rolling:

“How to design your perfect 2024”

“2024 can be your greatest year ever”

“Reach all your goals in 2024”

“How to structure your goals so you really achieve them, this time”

“The only 3 things you need to do for success in 2024”

“Do this Day 1 for financial success in 2024”

<Insert the sigh of a man who has done more than a few cycles around the sun>

Instead of dreaming up my goals for 2024 I’ve invested considerable listening time after asking this question:  What must I be?  What we do flows from what we are; what we do shapes what we become. 

The answer remains:  I am to be a large, clean conduit of God’s love and grace to everyone He puts in my sphere of influence.  I’m to become like an old tree, with deep roots, arms upraised to heaven, soaking in the sun and water, enduring wind and storms, providing food, shade and shelter for many, communicating with other trees, anchoring the forest ecosystem, useful even in death.

Other descriptions which fit:

• Bold truth-teller
• Cheerful warrior, dangerous to enemies of the good
• Courageous and self-controlled
• A deep listener, and worth listening to
• Provider for others
• Teacher, Encourager, Mentor
• Perceptive analyst of situations and trends
• Heavenly-minded and earthly-wise

What then shall I do?  How then shall I devote my finite time, energy, and attention?  What is the worthy way to walk in step with the Spirit, consistent with Christ in me, the hope of Glory? 

• Meditate, pray, intercede, encourage, listen
• Study, think. Be an excellent steward of imagination.
• Sharpen thinking through writing
• Be a world-class anticipator without being a world-class fretter
• Disproportionately lavish and serve others, especially family
• Create space for fellowship and friendship
• Strengthen my body
• Savor experiences and be thankful

Every week should have elements of these, enough that less-worthy things are crowded out of the schedule. 

I need specific projects and objectives which reinforce focus on the best ways to spend my time.  My employment situation is a rich source of intellectual stimulation and opportunities to teach and mentor. Family get-togethers and related travel.  Study objectives. Book projects, both reading and writing.  Particular physical goals. Quality and quantity time with my beloved.  Committed intercession for family and friends, and the larger world.  Stewarding our little part of the physical world.

I share this in case it helps you:  Don’t begin with specific projects – begin with who you aim to be, and work from there. 

…

When you realize about Feb 5^th that you failed to complete all those things you expected to accomplish in January, take a deep breath and remind yourself that we overestimate what we can do in a few weeks and underestimate what steady work can deliver in 3 years. 

Don’t give up.  Don’t think “Well, I’ll have to wait until 2025 and try again.”  Every day is a new day – the gift we rarely remember – so begin again.  Reminder to self:  I can’t change one iota of the past, and the future isn’t here yet, so focus on this present hour.

…

Another recommendation:  Set goals for six weeks instead of a year.  Six weeks is long enough to accomplish something substantial, and short enough that you can’t procrastinate.  If your goal is about a new habit or behavior, six weeks is often long enough to help it ‘stick.’ There are 8 six-week runs in a calendar year.  You can start a 6-week trial at any time. 

Goal-setting for six weeks is also helpful in a fast-changing world.  We’re less likely to be frustrated that our goals aren’t achievable because something outside our control changed midway through the year.   

…

Another recommendation for those forced to write ‘annual goals’ which get evaluated at the end of the fiscal year:  As much as possible, establish goals that can be finished by the end of the 3^rd quarter.  Then you have margin to flex and adjust work to finish things in 4 quarters.  Take everything not expressly tied to the 4^th quarter timeframe and get it done in the first 3 quarters.  This strategy requires focused discipline earlier in the year – when you’re less tired – and minimizes the “procrastination crunch” at the end of the year.

We rightly think about peace in the Christmas season, and new beginnings with hope.  There’s not a lot of peace in the world.  I’ve been thinking more about enemies. 

Enemy is a strong word. We have a rich vocabulary in English for people who oppose us (or our ideas and practices):  Rival, Competitor, Combatant, Contender, Opponent, Adversary, Challenger, Foe, Disputant, Litigant, Antagonist, Detractor.  All have tone and significance in context.  I’m guessing we invented many words because there are many situations of conflict!

I like the story about Abraham Lincoln’s cabinet discussing reparations towards the end of the Civil War.  One advisor who favored punishing the South said, “Mr. President, you’re supposed to destroy your enemies, not make friends of them!”  Lincoln replied, “Am I not destroying an enemy when I make a friend of him?” 

Rivals, competitors, opponents, even deadly combatants can become friends, allies, and partners.  There is a point where the only recourse with enemies is to destroy them.  Not every dispute will be settled by light and pleasant conversation.

The world wars in the 20^th century were truly awful. The Allied nations created close military and trade ties to Germany and Japan after we destroyed their ability to prosecute the war in 1945.  Decades later someone might see compressed events and incorrectly conclude it was easy. The process began with occupying troops and limited trust. We executed many leaders for war crimes.  It required significant investment in rebuilding (physical structures and institutions) and trade over decades.  Worthwhile, not easy. 

Our ultimate enemy is The Accuser – see Ephesians 6:10-14, with the goal of standing firm in the confidence of God.  Let us never forget that The Accuser is the power behind our human enemies.  The story of Christmas is a milestone in the greatest story of all.  Jesus was born to die, to defeat death, so that the only thing our enemies can ever do is hurt our temporary flesh costumes.  The most worthwhile thing ever, but not easy.

The Irish popularized the idea of a “thin place.” The saying is that heaven and earth are six feet apart, but there are special places where they are only inches apart.

A thin place might be an actual place.  Nearly everyone has special places where they feel closer to a divine presence.  Many ancient peoples considered sexual climax a thin place.  Psychoactive drugs might get you there, too.  Your thin place might be in a community, a family.  All you can orchestrate and plan is to get there.  The rest is a kind of magic that can be experienced but not explained. A friend of mine notes that while we call some places “the middle of nowhere,” the deep opportunity is to go to end of nowhere and listen. 

I will occasionally write this in my journals:  Remember — God is closer than the air around you.  I like Tom Hoobyar’s insight, too: “There are burning bushes everywhere. You just have to learn to see them.”  Even a casual reader of the Old Testament will notice how often people are commanded to remember, called to remember, and pleaded with to remember.  It’s clear that our species requires many reminders to keep us on track.  God is omnipresent and always communicating, even if we are distracted, feeling anonymous, and unaware (see Psalm 139). 

People speak about blind spots in our thinking; we are often in deaf spots, too.  There is a marvelous scene at Jesus’ transfiguration.  From Mark 9:

And Elijah appeared to them along with Moses; and they were talking with Jesus. Peter responded and said to Jesus, “Rabbi, it is good that we are here; let’s make three tabernacles, one for You, one for Moses, and one for Elijah.” For he did not know how to reply; for they became terrified. Then a cloud formed, overshadowing them, and a voice came out of the cloud: “This is My beloved Son; listen to Him!”

Elijah, Moses, and Jesus aren’t talking to Peter yet he responds.  He interjects an unnecessary idea – the mountaintop has already become a tabernacle, a place where heaven and earth meet.  This is confirmed by the shekinah glory cloud.  What is Peter’s necessary response?  Listen.  James and John were smart enough while terrified to keep their mouth shut in wonder. 

I gauge this story as truthful because a made-up story would make the disciples look more important and less foolish.  I’m grateful to Peter’s example, because it shows me that I, too, babble when I should be listening.  Talking a lot makes me look smart.  I’m wiser if I listen more.