Month: October 2023

I’ll make a prediction.  Some people will become so enamored with the speed, wit, breadth, depth, and apparent sentience of ai tools that new religions and cults will emerge.  The ai will be worshipped and celebrated as a super-entity, worthy of our adoration, sought out for wisdom and insight and blessings.  These more sophisticated ai tools will be considered friends, companions, mentors, gurus – on par with humans, and better in many ways.  Worshipping an ai will be convenient for individuals or groups. The ancients went to temples and high places and sought wisdom from the Oracle at Delphi. You’ll consult the ai from your phone.

Crazy?  

No.  This is about idols, things we fashion with our hands which we imbue with divine characteristics.  Humans have been in the idol business, oh, for a few thousand years. 

But their idols are silver and gold,

    made by human hands.

They have mouths, but cannot speak,

    eyes, but cannot see.

They have ears, but cannot hear,

    noses, but cannot smell.

They have hands, but cannot feel,

    feet, but cannot walk,

    nor can they utter a sound with their throats.

Those who make them will be like them,

    and so will all who trust in them. (Psalm 115:4-8, NIV)

Another other human tendency is to seek out teachers, prophets, and ‘wise’ counselors who say what we want to hear. (see 2 Timothy 4:3). 

This can be accelerated by the significant incentives at work. The people who profit from ai systems encourage people to use them, trust them, and describe them in lofty terms.  The people who savor power will be happy to work behind an ai interface; not everyone who gives their soul for power is a narcissist who demands to be known.  By their nature, ai tools will always give you an answer, so people who demand answers can always have one.

Anyone born after 2020 will have no memories of life without ai.  Perhaps we’ll develop something like the Game of Thrones paradigm of “the old gods and the new.”

“You don’t have to attend every argument you’re invited to.” (Kevin Kelly)

This is a good strategy to keep your center in the right place when the political campaign and news-media landscape are sending you 2,419 invitations a day.  Try this: Step back and notice how frequently information is pitched to you as something you should get into arguments about.  And then how large a subset of these are ‘existential’ threats that DEMAND your immediate involvement. 

The inevitable outcome is that many people become jaded, overwhelmed, and don’t do anything specific. They’re already half-defeated. They’re more likely to be inclined to let others do something for them.  This fits perfectly into the power plan. 

I’m still pondering the connections between anger, overwhelm and fear.  You don’t need to study Machiavelli, Locke, Hoffer, or Greene to understand how valuable those three elements are to those who pursue power (or are desperate to grow and retain it). 

Current hypothesis:  The individuals least likely to become part of the senseless populace are those who control their anger, make progress on what’s critically important in the face of overwhelm, and know Who is worthy of their fear.  They pursue optimistic possibilities. They see a brighter future and will work for it.

What do you think?

A useful exercise is to ponder possible future scenarios.  What could happen?  What would that mean to different stakeholders?  You can think at a personal scale – you and your immediate loved ones.  It’s also helpful at community, state, national, and geopolitical scales, too.

A few scenarios that I’ve been doodling on…

What will the response be to efforts to normalize/celebrate polyamory and polygamy?  Reduced age of majority? Many countries in the West have arrived (and quickly) with same-sex marriage, transgender, and no-fault divorce being accepted by large fractions of the population.  Once someone takes the position that marriage is whatever we legally define it to be, then polyamory and polygamy are only a quarter-step away. 

Where does food come from if Ukraine and Russia can no longer be the massive exporters they have been in the last 20 years?  The war has degraded agriculture exports in both countries.  Both countries will struggle to feed themselves in the near term, even though Russia has remarkably good yields this year.  Western Europe no longer feeds itself, nor Africa, nor China.  What can North America (I include Mexico) do to feed more of the world’s population?  And what will that require in terms of energy and trade policies?  Related scenario:  What do we do in 50 years if our current topsoil loss rate continues?

Suppose there is a wonderful breakthrough in battery technology or wireless power transfers that revolutionizes electric vehicles.  What become the new limiting factors – aside from raw materials for manufacturing vehicles and infrastructure?  Will we ‘incentivize’ EV adoption via government push, or will the economics be compelling enough for voluntary adoption at a fast rate (like smartphones)?  How quickly might this change economic incentives in developing countries which are currently struggling with lack of quality electricity?

What could be accomplished if every child could access a personal AI tutor for learning the fundamentals of reading, writing, and math, for $100/year or less?  What if this was true for 10% of children?  Would we continue with the same public education models we have today?  Who “loses” some aspect of power and control that exists today, and what will they say and do?  How many families would embrace personalized tutors?

What comes after the current CCP regime?  Demographic and economic trends are not good for China, which gives the political leadership more license to squeeze and control.  (Stalin could have only wished for the CCP’s technology ability to monitor its citizens.  This makes them more dangerous in the next few years.  Leaders tend to spin up external conflict to distract from internal failures. Something I never hear geopolitical analysts discuss: the Christian communities in China have been systematically praying for decades, and it was the stalwart religious faithful in other communist countries who played a catalytic role in their collapse. 

The ability to fake anything digital – email addresses, names, photos, videos, audio messages, entire websites – has been a boon to scammers and mass persuaders.  You simply cannot trust what’s presented to you onscreen.  If a message matches your predisposition and worldview, look out, because you’re especially vulnerable to manipulation through intentionally falsified information. What does this mean going forward for trusting businesses, advocates, leaders, service providers, and institutions of all kinds?  What new mechanisms can Captain Skeptical use to verify the authenticity of a message? 

What would it take for people to stop staring at their digital devices for 8+ hours a day?  I’m thinking mostly of smartphones, but screens are ubiquitous.  There’s a different effect of scrolling “social media” (which is oddly named since it seems to make people lonelier and depressed) and watching MIT’s engineering classes.  I have a hard time imagining a world without ubiquitous screens going forward.  Is the content question any different than fostering a love for good books vs. trashy novels and yellow journalism a century ago? 

I’m curious to hear about the scenarios you have in mind, too. 

Expectations are good.  The prerequisite for planning is to have expectations.  You must anticipate possible factors and act in ways that favor better outcomes.  Without expectations you can’t make good choices.

Expectations are also the root of disappointments, resentments, and bitterness.  Reality doesn’t always match what we promised ourselves – or think was promised to us.  Reality holds trump cards which defy our expectations.

Expectations emerge from the stories we allow to shape our assumptions, our worldviews.  Some of those stories we hear from others are carefully curated, smoothly polished, and even intentionally crafted.  Those stories amplify some elements of reality and downplay others.  When our experience doesn’t match the story we absorbed we take the emotional hit.  “This wasn’t what I thought it was going to be!” That gap between our expectations and experience drives unhelpful behaviors.

I’m sure you can think of examples where expectations crashed into reality like a bug hitting a windshield.  I think about:

• Awkward relationships vs. ‘norm’ on TV shows and movies
• Standing up to bullies not going well
• The long slog to getting my degrees, and how getting them didn’t lead to acclaim and jobs
• Publishing books and writing newsletters
• Church and work leadership roles, and having to deal with the ugliness of people stuff

…

Becoming cynical and giving up hopes and dreams is not the answer.  We need stories to inspire and prepare us.  We simply cannot let them solidify into a set of expectations that when unmet lead us into quitting, whining, and abandoning.  The gift is the opportunity to open ourselves to experiences and learn from them.

I sometimes advocate people to hold expectations like a wet bar of soap in the shower.  Squeeze it too tightly, and it will squirt away.  Hold too loosely and you’ll drop it.  You must gently hold the slippery bar and adjust your grip as you go.

My recommended strategy is this:  Accept life for what it is, don’t dwell in the past, and strain forward as we’re called.  You might recognize this:  Not that I have already obtained all this, or have already arrived at my goal, but I press on to take hold of that for which Christ Jesus took hold of me.  Brothers and sisters, I do not consider myself yet to have taken hold of it. But one thing I do: Forgetting what is behind and straining toward what is ahead,  I press on toward the goal to win the prize for which God has called me heavenward in Christ Jesus. (Paul writing to the Philippian church, 3:12-14, NIV)

We learn to enjoy joyful moments, because constant joy isn’t realistic.   

We learn to savor our precious relationships, because some relationships are discouraging drains, bereft of love and caring.

We learn to walk in sunshine and rain, because life gives us both.

We learn that not all pain is bad for us, and not all pleasure is good for us. 

…

Burnout is a serious problem in organizations.  It’s related to the percentage of people who aren’t fully engaged at work – Gallup says that number is about 70% and has been at that level for many years.

Most people think burnout is because people have too much workload.  They can’t sustain it.  Sometimes the answer to burnout is a change of role, change of work, change of station.  Sometimes we need an extended rest and recovery period.  

Yet fully-engaged people surprise themselves with work capacity and energy.  They are working hard, expanding their scope, and not burning out. 

My observation: People burn out because they have too little impact.  They’re grinding away and they don’t see results or progress or meaning.  We don’t thrive when we see zero correlation between our work and meaningful progress, even when we’re paid for the work. 

I encourage you to reflect on this.

By the way, you can clearly see this burnout phenomenon in the history of communist countries.   

…

The key to having more impact is to focus your attention on the 20% that has the greatest payoff for the organization, or at least the people in your sphere of influence.  This is related to focusing on the important-not-urgent what whispers, rather than urgent “schtuff” which screams for your attention.  Another way to frame this is to decide to spend more time on $10,000/hour work than $10/hour work. 

Impact players in sports and business work hard.  The difference is working hard on the critical few things.  Being busy is easy; doing effective work is harder.

…

Impact is related to Influence.  I’ve written before about how I’d like to influence more people.  I’ve even published a book about influencing more people!

Perhaps rather than seeking to have a larger influence, I should instead focus on pursuing the most meaningful work and life that I’m called to.  That might not look like much by some standards, from an external view.  I’d have to swallow some ego, for sure.  But I can relax my “grip” and be unconcerned about the influence because it will be an emergent property of the meaningful work.  My risk of burnout plummets.  I will still need to fight for joy.  I will fix my eyes on the correct Person!

Sometimes the advice for writers, especially for non-fiction, is “Write what you know.” 

In my experience, the mantra is “Write about what you want to know.”  Writing is creative exploring.  The desire to know, to clarify, to crystallize the confusing into something useful is what pulls us forward.

I suspect that creating music, sculpture, art of all kinds are also creative explorations of the edge of what we don’t know.

Marriage and parenting are likewise always at the edge of what we don’t know.  That’s why you must build marriages and family relationships on revealed truth, reliable foundations. 

Formal speaking is different.  You must understand what your audience needs, then develop what you will say and how you’ll organize and deliver the content.  What pulls speakers forward is the strong desire to share with others.

I have had three different bosses who needed to “think out loud” in front of an audience to know their own mind.  It took me some time to discern – differently for each of them – when they were thinking out loud and when they were giving me specific direction or establishing policy.  If you’re one of these people, it’s a great gift to your listeners to clearly advertise when you are thinking aloud!

Back to creative exploration…

I had two conversations recently with people who portray themselves as victims.  They didn’t use that word, but their behavior tells me that’s what they believe.  They deserve more, better, different, and it’s “other people” who are blocking them, denying them, undercutting them, misunderstanding their abilities.  

I’m wondering today if, perhaps, they’re at the uncomfortable edge of creative exploration, and just hope someone else will take the next steps for them.  What they want (or think they deserve) is on the far side of that uncomfortable edge.  Perhaps they assume that this uncomfortable edge is somehow controlled by others.  I could be wrong.

One part of it, for sure, is that other people make decisions that affect us.  The people who make those decisions generally have the power to make those decisions. You might have a different idea, but you don’t have the authority to make that decision, and you need to make your peace with this. 

There are loads of things which didn’t go like I wanted them to.  I’ve been passed by multiple times for promotions and opportunities I wanted.  Though I’ve made progress on the maturity scale, I still find myself jealous of others. I’m deeply blessed (and certainly beyond what I know!) yet struggle with comparisons.  I would have been just like Peter, comparing myself to another disciple. Like everyone else, I’ve paid a price for decisions made by elite leaders who didn’t have skin in the game and suffered no consequences.  This is a busted-up world run badly by fallen people.  Every day is a fresh opportunity to work within our sphere of influence, focus most intently on things within our control, and remind ourselves God’s sovereign power and love for us.

I frequently hear people use the word ‘Fair.’  As in, “It’s only fair,” and “That’s not fair.” 

‘Fair’ is rarely a useful standard.  It works when you tell one kid to cut the donut in half and let the other kid choose which half to eat. I used to tell our kids that if you want fair you should look for a different universe.  I admit it took me years to figure out that fair most often means one side got what it wanted in a way the other side couldn’t complain about. 

Unequal distributions are the norm of the world. 80/20 (or 70/30 or 95/5) distributions are everywhere in the universe.  My reading of Scripture is that there are unequal distributions of rewards in heaven, too.  Frankly, given the wickedness in my life and the holiness of God, I don’t want ‘fair.’  I’m grateful for grace!

Rather than ‘fair,’ which is incredibly subjective and doesn’t fit a world of unequal distributions, we need to bind ourselves to imago dei, personal responsibility, truth rather than lies, and equal treatment under laws.

Sometimes the advice for writers, especially for non-fiction, is “Write what you know.” 

In my experience, the mantra is “Write about what you want to know.”  Writing is creative exploring.  The desire to know, to clarify, to crystallize the confusing into something useful is what pulls us forward.

I suspect that creating music, sculpture, art of all kinds are also creative explorations of the edge of what we don’t know.

Marriage and parenting are likewise always at the edge of what we don’t know.  That’s why you must build marriages and family relationships on revealed truth, reliable foundations. 

Formal speaking is different.  You must understand what your audience needs, then develop what you will say and how you’ll organize and deliver the content.  What pulls speakers forward is the strong desire to share with others.

I have had three different bosses who needed to “think out loud” in front of an audience to know their own mind.  It took me some time to discern – differently for each of them – when they were thinking out loud and when they were giving me specific direction or establishing policy.  If you’re one of these people, it’s a great gift to your listeners to clearly advertise when you are thinking aloud!

Back to creative exploration…

I had two conversations recently with people who portray themselves as victims.  They didn’t use that word, but their behavior tells me that’s what they believe.  They deserve more, better, different, and it’s “other people” who are blocking them, denying them, undercutting them, misunderstanding their abilities.  

I’m wondering today if, perhaps, they’re at the uncomfortable edge of creative exploration, and just hope someone else will take the next steps for them.  What they want (or think they deserve) is on the far side of that uncomfortable edge.  Perhaps they assume that this uncomfortable edge is somehow controlled by others.  I could be wrong.

One part of it, for sure, is that other people make decisions that affect us.  The people who make those decisions generally have the power to make those decisions. You might have a different idea, but you don’t have the authority to make that decision, and you need to make your peace with this. 

There are loads of things which didn’t go like I wanted them to.  I’ve been passed by multiple times for promotions and opportunities I wanted.  Though I’ve made progress on the maturity scale, I still find myself jealous of others. I’m deeply blessed (and certainly beyond what I know!) yet struggle with comparisons.  I would have been just like Peter, comparing myself to another disciple. Like everyone else, I’ve paid a price for decisions made by elite leaders who didn’t have skin in the game and suffered no consequences.  This is a busted-up world run badly by fallen people.  Every day is a fresh opportunity to work within our sphere of influence, focus most intently on things within our control, and remind ourselves God’s sovereign power and love for us.

I write out the list of questions I’m pondering because seeing them on paper somehow makes my brain work better. These are questions without simple answers.  No Google search or ChatGPT query is sufficient.  I use these questions to help guide what I pick to read and study. They also become prayer matters when they stay on my mind and heart. 

Partial list (does not include the quite personal and I choose to keep those confidential):

• What should wealthier seniors sacrifice for common good (beyond their families)?
• What is the best process to recover trust in institutions after that trust is eroded/destroyed?
• How will the Church respond to polyamory, polygamy, and reducing the age of consent?
• What is the best course of action for individuals when organizations become corrupted? 
• What capabilities for students should we expect from schooling?
• How can the Western Canon become a stronger part of the foundations for adults who want to learn?
• What are the critical things I need to be teaching the next two generations of leaders?
• What should I do now to be better prepared for <family challenges I can see coming>?
• What are the secondary and tertiary consequences of ai tools in education, living wage employment, and social/political structures?
• Who in my sphere of influence needs more from me, and who less?
• What do I need to surrender today? 
• There are growing and unstainable national, state, pension, corporate, family debt instabilities.  What are the least bad options through this to a better future?
• Does it always require a crisis to change the status quo when the people with the power to change it are the same people who benefit from the status quo?
• Were we to get into an active war with a major adversary, what individual liberties are most important to protect?
• Where must we draw lines on gene editing?
• How can I best model “innocent as doves and wise as serpents”?
• In what ways do I need to reinvent my practices to continue to drive to excellence?
• Dear God, I know you do a thousand things at once, so what are you doing with <this situation>?

Have you written out your big questions?  What are the key questions you’re exploring? 

My friend MW recently recommended Psalm 11 to me. 

In the Lord I take refuge;

how can you say to my soul,

    “Flee like a bird to your mountain,

for behold, the wicked bend the bow;

    they have fitted their arrow to the string

    to shoot in the dark at the upright in heart;

if the foundations are destroyed,

    what can the righteous do?”

The Lord is in his holy temple;

    the Lord’s throne is in heaven;

    his eyes see, his eyelids test the children of man.

When faced with awful and dreadful possibilities, the answer is “The Lord is in his holy temple.”

I observe that many of us (I include myself) spend considerable fruitless energy and time wanting to be something we simply aren’t.  Or wanting someone else to be someone they aren’t. 

Why is it so difficult to accept certain truths about ourselves and others? 

We wrestle with this at multiple levels.  For our place in relationship with our Creator, we should listen carefully to what He says we are.  The rest of it — our ‘career,’ what we do, who we associate with, how we think about our gifts and talents, and more – becomes a battle about who we want to impress or please.  I can chuckle at some goofy things teenagers do to be well-thought-of by someone else, but ‘mature’ adults do this too.  The stakes for adults might even be higher.

We like the language of ‘self-made’ man or woman.  Our choices shape us, but there’s a deep starting point that we don’t own.  The people in our lives, beginning in utero and continuing through this very day, have a tremendous impact on us, too. 

There’s a story about a scientist who figures out how to create life.  He goes to God and offers a challenge.  “Let’s each start with a handful of dirt.  I’ll bring forth a new life and you do the same and we’ll see which is more impressive.”  God accepts.  The scientist reaches down and scoops up some dirt. God says, “Go get your own dirt.” 

A key to understanding and embracing who we are and are meant to become is to first realize that none of this began when we arrived on the scene.  We are always grounded in a great “before me” reality.

Once we get that through our thick hearts, then we wrestle with what price we’re willing to pay (and for how long) to achieve our potential.  There’s always a cost.  I’ve written before about our tendency to want to be the noun without doing the verb.  I want to be super-fit and lean without doing the exercise and healthy eating. I want to be godly without sacrifice and humility.  I want to be deeply studied in 12 minutes.  No free lunch, sorry!